Encounter - Northern Sudan political parties' consultations: conspiracy or remedy for anarchy?
Kordofan, Sudan - It is NCP's season of migration to lay eggs in the nests of northern Sudanese political oppositions. The lavish financial spending by NCP on organizing, persuading and possibly buying other northern based political parties to its wounded side has reached a proportion that can be identified even by common folks in as far as Umdafoq in Darfur. Every evening, new members from northern opposition parties are brought in before Sudan Television. This is to show that things are going on rightly before 2009 general election. NCP is taking the "god-fatherism" position with ease.
It all began in mid 2007 with a "national consultations" licensed to former retired Sudanese military ruler General Abdel Rahman Suar el Dahab. This body was shortly taken over by NCP to engage "outsiders" who are lying in the cold out of CPA's national unity government.
As Sudan approaches 5th census and later general election in 2009 as required by 2005 CPA, some high profile officials from NCP are spending sleepless nights to convince their fellow northerners to come closer and unite with a cause to defeat the southerners or marginalized once and for all. The bullets failed, so the ballots should not!
To approach other well established political parties like the Umma, Popular Congress, Democratic Unionist party, Communist, Baath Party, Reformed Umma etc., NCP is using the accidental CPA as an enticing card to woo the old parties to join its ranks. The main architect of the CPA, the SPLM is not new to some of the older parties, after all it fought and defeated them.
CPA as viewed by northern political parties:
-Umma Party; It must be reviewed. "CPA gave southerners control of Sudan's oil. After 2011 it will revert to 100% for southerners." Sadiq el Mahdi (En Nahud, January 2007). Abyei Protocol must favor Misseriya or CPA is useless.
-Popular Congress; Dr. Hassan Turabi endorsed it immediately. He was the first prominent northern Sudanese political leader outside the government of national unity who welcomed Dr. John Garang in Khartoum in July 2005. Darfur must be saved from bloodbath just like what SPLM stood for in its struggle. Fading clarity and silence followed afterwards.
-Democratic Unionist Party; Mohamed Osman Mirghani did not oppose CPA but he remained in exile. DUP and SPLM were allies in the defunct National Democratic Alliance, NDA up to 2005.
-Communist Party; They have generally welcomed it.
-Baath is a smaller party with its manifesto that is not accommodative to all Sudanese due to its Arab nationalism.
Current consultations:
NCP-Umma
This is a serious move openly known to Sudanese public. Drs. Mustafa Osman Ismail (NCP) and Abdel Nebi Ali Ahmed (Umma) are leading the consultation teams from both sides. So far much is not yet promising between the tow parties. As they negotiate on possible cooperation, Umma party officials are being harassed by security forces in party rallies (Qubeish, Darfur etc.). The continued harassments pave ways for behind curtain attacks. Street politics in the country is citing NCP offering Sadiq Al Mahdi Premiership should marriage take place between the two parties. If this will be successful, NCP top political diehards will be tactfully saving their necks for defeat, indictment and disintegration of the party. SSU and mother NIF are clear examples after humiliating loss of power. Sudanese will continue to watch out until the end of the game.
NCP-PC
Popular Congress party, whose leader Hasan Turabi, has no much difficulty negotiating with NCP in terms of skill, experience and respect. The only condition put forward is; "release our political prisoners first!" The moderate camp within NCP has already conceded for the release of some of the PC members still in security cells in northern Sudan. Some NCP party officials would like to contact PC secretly. This is to alienate PC top leadership. A wrong move. Younger leaders such as Dr. Beshir Adam Rahma, Mohamed El Amin Khalifa, Abdalla Deng Nhial and others including elderly Ibrahim Sanusi may forgive NCP and move forward to rebuild the mother party.
For Sudanese, NCP and PC are the same coin with two faces. They have worked together for Islamic Movement in the country until 12th December, 1999 when the Master and the Pupil fell out in disgrace over power. Lust for power is the only hindrance for the reunification of the two parties. The Master and the Pupil cannot lock horns any more because of some implications. One of those implications is the association of Darfur's Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) with PC; Dr. Hassen Turabi is often referred to as backer of the movement. Though JEM's leader, Dr. Khalil Ibrahim was NIF's first born, he took up arms to fight marginalization of his people in Dafur. Both PC and JEM distanced themselves from each other. With JEM now holding Super Middle Weight military title in Darfur, NCP is definitely unhappy to see SAF positions overran in Darfur by JEM. Unification of NCP and PC in recent times may not be possible unless Darfur crisis is brought under control. One other serious implication is the association of PC party with marginalized or racially Sudanese of African stock. Great majority of PC are in Darfur, Kordofan, Sennar and southern Sudan. South Sudanese within PC such as Abdalla Deng Nhial, Ibrahim Al Mas and Musa Makur are holding senior positions within the party. So far none of them has opposed the CPA or talked against SPLM leadership. But this group should move away from Khartoum to further their party agenda for masses outside. If they want to have supporters, they have to get them from the countryside. Since PC creation in 1999, all northerners from the ruling tribes of the Sudan were "persuaded" by their elders and colleagues to leave the party of the "gharaba" (westerners) and enjoy the privileges of NCP preserved for them in various ministries such as energy, finance, defense, foreign affairs etc. Gradually, they moved out of PC party, leaving the despised of the ruling elite.
DUP-NCP
The coalition between Democratic Unionist party and National Congress may be a difficult task. Mohamed Osman El Mirghani is said to be coming home, three years after CPA. DUP may go alone for the 2009 polls. This is a risk with fragmented allegiance from members, assumed to be formidable. Time has worked against it though.
COMMUNIST-NCP
This is impossibility. The relationship between the two parties is at an opposite ends. NCP may take an octopus stands by smoothening communist party before swallowing it for eternity. NCP has made communism in the country into a hateful thing in front of the citizens. Presumed anti religious philosophy of the party was picked by NCP to be used against the very idea of communist party. Merger between the communists and NCP will leave a lot to be desired by followers of Islamic sharia and their advocates in the country.
Reasons for consultations: One may pose; why are northern political parties restless now for their unity?
The SPLM is being seen by majority of the Sudanese as the only party "untested' by Sudanese. There is an educated guess that, once the marginalized poured into the streets to elect a president for the country, SPLM may win handsomely with her candidate. Sudanese have tried DUP, NIF, Umma and military; all are considered failure by the marginalized.
SPLM big fight: SPLM's chance might have been ruined by the early exit of the founding father who brought out 6 million Sudanese to vote for change on Friday 8th July 2005 in Khartoum. Personality character can be regained by SPLM with the current Chairman of the party. To reach that mark set by late Dr. John Garang in the hearts of the marginalized; Salva Kiir has to abandon his mansions in Khartoum and Juba for one month. He must sleep in Dongola, Port Sudan, Kurmuk, El-Obeid, Rabak, Kadugli, Nyala, Fashir, Daba, Gadarif, Kassala and Senar. Advisors to Salva Kiir on political affairs must take up lessons for him. After the Chairman's Visits, there should be other back-up visits by Pagan Amum, Yasir Arman, James Wani Igga, Rebecca Nyandeng De Mabior, Tabitha Butrus etc. If the SPLM is to gain the massive votes from northern Sudan, this is the moment to do so even before SPLM Convention in May 2008. SPLM has already proved to be a threat not only for the ruling NCP but also to traditional northern political parties.
The day SPLM will sweep away votes into the Republican Palace in 2009, the ruling tribes of the Sudan will loose power forever because SPLM will usher in "grassroots government" that will see a Sudanese chosen on merits to become the head of state for the first time. Race, religion, ethnicity that ruined the country will be archived.
Conspiracy: To fail SPLM's sailing boat to the presidency, staunch Islamists and racists rulers in Khartoum will try to convince other northern political parties to leave aside "family differences" and face the common enemy, the SPLM. Religion and race will come in because of the rooted divide that has taken the country backward for 52 years since the British left the country. An SPLM government can not survive long; it will be brought down by any means under the sun. If you should move around, you will gauge the mood how NCP did not help SPLM to be considered as a genuine political party devoid of racial, religious and sexist agenda.
Moderate northern political parties will be overpowered by the majority who will die to retain Khartoum as center for Islamic sharia than be ruled by SPLM infidels. CPA has proved that negotiating on the status of Khartoum is a heavily mined field. Umma party will proudly relate the importance of Khartoum to the days when General Charles Gordon was defeated and finally beheaded by Mahdist ansars in 1885. A legacy not to be bargained at all cost. DUP Khatmiya's tradition comes in unopposed. Keeping tradition is necessitated for political survival. Given the hardships of penetration on Khartoum by none traditional residents, it will become a no go place except to remain agreeably, pure symbol of Islamic influence in the heart of Africa and Arab World.
Remedy:
Should NCP take up its media aggressively to convince all other political parties to give chance for majority of the marginalized Sudanese to rule the country in 2009, SPLM could be a great party to be picked. One possibility could be NCP, PC, Umma, and DUP to merge and produce a single candidate for the joint parties. If the presidential candidate is a southerner with Darfur bringing in running mate, south Sudan maybe spared of anger of seceding in 2011. NCP, being a strong party at the moment could have a presidential aspirant from Blue Nile and vice president from southern Sudan or the Nuba Mountains.
Northern political parties should ask themselves; "are we still not yet satisfied of ruling the country? Or should we let Sudan disintegrate to retain our sweet fruits we have been enjoying since 1956 minus Darfur and southern Sudan?"
*John Oryem is The New Sudan Vision Chief Bureau Officer in Sudan, author of two books and editor of Author-me.com and lives in Kordofan. He can be reached at oryemjohn@yahoo.com
