News Analysis - Fingers crossed as Electoral Commission counts vote in Kenya’s elections
Anxiety is subsiding in most Kenyan towns as voters cast their votes in what observers have described as a poll too close to call. Not only are the Kenya’s election results important to Kenyans but they are also of critical concern to Eastern Africans and Africans as a whole. For one, Kenya has been very peaceful at a time when all her neighbors have been in unrest. Maintaining this positive image for Kenya is paramount despite who becomes president. However, judging from cases of election violence in the last few days and the high stakes this election have raised, one has a valid reason to cross their fingers.
For starters to Kenyan politics, 2002 is a year so important in Kenya’s contemporary history. And so will 2007. In the 2002 polls, President Emelio Mwai Kibaki became the first ever truly elected head of state. He did not just win. It was victory for a coalition of opposition heavy weights, chief among them, Raila Amolo Odinga, late Michael Kijana Wamalwa, Charity Kaloku Ngilu, Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka and immediate former Vice President Moody Awori. Analysts and Kenyans alike are convinced that Coalition politics have come to stay. Looking at the various realignments in the current elections, I say Kenya is most likely headed towards a two – party system such as that in United Sates of America. Supporting this argument is the fact that of the “Big Threeâ€, Kalonzo, who has been trailing Raila and Kibaki in opinion polls, has expressed willingness to work with the winner in the fashion of Government of National Unity. Although this can be seen to have the potential to kill democracy, it equally has the potential to leave a lasting democratic footprint in Kenya. But one is forced to ask “how?â€
Three years into government, the coalition fell apart leading to the defeat of the government side in the Constitutional Referendum in 2005 and the subsequent sacking of the rebel ministers, led by Raila. This falling out brings me to the issues at stake in this election. The incumbent, Mr. Mwai Kibaki, has surely turned around a faltering economy to 6% growth. The opposition has been trying to downplay this growth but everyone is convinced that Kibaki’s government has done well in boosting the economy. However, there are many odds against Kibaki. These are the thrashing of MOU that brought him to power, his old age, 76, historical Kikuyu dominance in matters of wealth. All these factors have tarnished Kibaki’s image among Kenyans. He only has support among the Kikuyu and their cousins, the Meru and Embu. As we wait for the results, it will be a miracle to see Kibaki win against a combined force of the Luhya, Luo, Kalenjin and Coastal Communities. This has been Raila’s tactful intelligence in putting together a team named the Pentagon, although they are six, which has the face of Kenya. Kibaki’s Party of National Unity tried to balance their team along ethnic sensitivities but that only came out as a defensive reaction to ODM’s dream of the Kenyan face. Even in the campaigns, PNU has seemed reactionary in every attempt. This apparent consolidation of some communities behind Raila to change the government further supports my earlier assertion that these maneuvers will advance democracy albeit with an apparent negative tribal connotation they may carry.
To many Kenyans and external observers, PNU represents the status quo. The notion of wanting to maintain the status quo is further compounded and entrenched by the entry of former president Moi. Moi supports Kibaki on claims that the incumbent has the welfare of Kenyans at heart. This is a very hard pill to swallow for the urban youth who care only about economic prosperity. Moi will only worsen Kibaki’s chances of victory in the just concluded polls. On the other hand, Raila’s promise of a radical government to tackle economic injustices coupled with the youthful nature of his ODM team wildly excites young Kenyans and who blames them, for this new generation of Africans want a complete break with the ugly past! This past cannot be left behind if and when Kibaki, Moi and the likes work together for the next five years. For heaven’s sake, what do they have in common? This question rings LOUD in my mind as I write this piece.
For Southern Sudanese who have had a second home in Kenya, indeed the first home, we hold our breath with our Kenyan brothers and sisters as we anticipate the outcome of the elections. Although it doesn’t really matter to Sudanese who becomes the next Kenyan president, there is a huge stake for the future of the region. Of equal interest to us is that we in the Southern Sudan will go through the same experience in the next few years. It could even be worse for we are fragmented along ethnic lines more than Kenya. Would we love to see ourselves facing the same challenges after 40 years of the formation of the New Sudan State?
In conclusion, a Kibaki win means continuation of economy digit growth. But it also means continuation of the status quo – a bunch of corrupt old men refusing to let go hold on power. However, a Raila win could signal a complete break with the past albeit with possible consequences. His supporters could get out of hand as they may not know how to responsibly execute the newly acquired power after a long struggle. This is a genuine concern for the Kikuyu and those who have been in power for the last 40 years. At the same time, given Raila’s energy, one has reason to believe that he is most likely to pacify the East African region through infrastructure development, telecommunications and energy. This is of particular concern to Southern Sudanese. Based on the preceding analysis, we have reason to be apprehensive for a win either way. Kibaki’s men, out of fear, will not want to let go power and therefore may refuse to hand over. Raila too is not likely to concede defeat should he narrowly lose given his strong suspicion and claims that the government is about to rig the polls. His fears were somewhat confirmed when his name was missing from a voter register in his Langata constituency early Thursday – a situation that the chairman of the Electoral Commission immediately rectified. As we await the results in a matter of hours, let’s hope that Kenya survives this crucial test of democracy – that the loser unconditionally concedes defeat!
*Jok Gai Anai is a South Sudanese student at the University of Victoria, Canada.
